The Current State and Future Trends of the US Auto Market

The automotive industry is constantly evolving, and it is vital to have access to reliable data and intelligent insights to navigate through these dynamic market conditions. The Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team offers a thorough collection and analysis of data, providing key takeaways from the 2023 data and predictions for the upcoming year in the 2024 Cox Automotive Market Insights and Outlook (CAMIO) report.

In 2023, the industry saw a return to normal patterns, with most key metrics showing improvement. The inflation rate dropped from over 6% in January 2023 to 3.4% by the end of the year. The auto market also experienced improvements in inventory, transaction prices, and sales. Despite high auto loan rates, consumer spending remained steady thanks to a healthy labor market and increasing wages. The 46-day UAW strike had little impact on total vehicle sales as the market continued on its path to recovery.

As we look ahead to 2024, the industry is expected to experience slow growth, transitioning from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, giving consumers more power. However, high loan rates are still expected to significantly influence the automotive business. The key question will be the anticipated relief in 2024 and how soon it will affect the market. This shift in dynamics, along with the upcoming November election, will be significant factors shaping the US auto market in the year ahead.

In 2023, the Fed maintained caution and kept interest rates unchanged, posing a limitation to potential vehicle buyers who require financing. New-vehicle sales exceeded expectations, buoyed by growing deliveries, higher incentives, and improving supply levels. However, used-vehicle sales were hindered by the limited supply of ‘nearly new’ vehicles and improving new-vehicle inventory. Even the seasonal patterns showed some volatility in the market.

Cox Automotive also conducts an annual Car Buyer Journey study, examining various attributes related to vehicle buying in America, with a focus on new and used vehicle buyer satisfaction. The Dealer Sentiment Index provides valuable insights into dealer perceptions on the automotive market, including sales, inventory, profit, and pricing. Additionally, the quarterly Kelley Blue Book Electric Vehicle Sales Reports provide estimated sales of electric vehicles by brand and model.

The 2024 CAMIO report is a valuable tool provided by Cox Automotive. For the most comprehensive and timely data and insights, the Cox Automotive Newsroom and Auto Market Snapshot should be regularly consulted. Subscribing to ‘From the Newsroom’, a biweekly newsletter, will ensure you receive the latest industry data and insights from the best team of analysts and experts available. Stay informed to stay ahead in the US auto market.