The ongoing French election campaign, which began on the evening of June 9, has led to a significant shift in financial discourse, with the focus now on figures in the hundreds of billions of euros. Both the ruling majority and the opposition have been presenting large numbers, despite the fact that these figures are based on approximate calculations stemming solely from promises made thus far.
During his press conference on June 12, President Emmanuel Macron stated that the Rassemblement National (RN) platform would cost at least 100 billion euros. On the other hand, Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire cautioned that the left’s program would result in hundreds of billions of euros in additional spending. The RN and the left promptly responded by accusing the government of irresponsibility, citing a thousand billion euros in additional debt incurred since 2017.
However, neither the incumbent majority nor the opposition can claim sincerity when it comes to these figures. The government, which first released exaggerated estimates of its opponents’ promises, was recently reprimanded by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s. Meanwhile, the left views these colossal figures as evidence of its political determination, and the far right appears to be backtracking, tacitly acknowledging that its ambitious promises may not materialize.
Xavier Jaravel, associate professor at the London School of Economics, has noted the lack of authoritative, non-partisan institutions in France during election periods, expressing concern over the absence of honest discussions about trajectories in public debate.
As it stands, none of the parties involved in the campaign have estimated the cost of their own policy platforms, leaving it to others to make these calculations. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, in a press conference on June 20, dismissed the notion of estimating costs, emphasizing that the measures proposed by the government are financed and credible. He claimed that the Macron bonus and the abolition of notary fees for certain transactions would not incur any costs, overlooking the potential impact on salaries and tax cuts. The liberal think tank, Institut Montaigne, has estimated the cost of these measures to be €12-14 billion, and this does not include other proposed measures.
The absence of honest estimates and dialogue on public finance is a significant concern in the lead-up to the French elections. It will be critical for all parties involved to engage in transparent and forthcoming discussions about the financial impact of their policy proposals.