North Korea’s Recent ICBM Flight Test and Unverified Re-entry Technology

South Korea’s Minister of National Defense, Shin Won-sik, has commented on North Korea’s recent successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), noting that while it demonstrates their flight capability, their atmospheric reentry technology remains unverified. The North test-fired the solid-fuel Hwasong-18 ICBM on Monday at a lofted angle, which could potentially target U.S. territories if launched at a standard angle. This marks the fifth ICBM launch for the North this year and the third Hwasong-18 following two tests in April and July.

Minister Shin emphasized that despite North Korea’s success in flying a missile a long distance and developing a solid fuel missile, there is still a need to verify their capability of re-entering the atmosphere and accurately striking a target. He also mentioned that their multiple warhead technology has not yet been accurately verified, but there is a belief that North Korea is moving in that direction.

In response to the increasing threats from North Korea, Shin expressed the urgency to expedite nuclear deterrence efforts with Washington to solidify their agreements in the bilateral Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG). He aims to make these agreements “irreversible” regardless of the results of the next year’s U.S. presidential election. South Korea and the U.S. have recently committed to completing the establishment of guidelines on a shared nuclear strategy by mid-2024 and to conduct joint military exercises simulating nuclear attacks from the North.

Amid concerns that Pyongyang might use its status as a nuclear power to negotiate nuclear disarmament talks with Washington, Shin stated that South Korea would welcome it if North Korea takes actions without preconditions, once again emphasizing the significance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance.

Addressing the speculation on South Korea’s own nuclear weapons program to counter the North’s evolving threats, Shin ruled out the option as it could negatively impact the alliance with the U.S. He believes that a strengthened extended deterrence with the U.S. is a more realistic path rather than South Korea’s independent nuclear armament.

North Korea conducted its last nuclear test in September 2017 and enshrined its nuclear power status in its constitution. Nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have been at a standstill since the 2019 Hanoi summit between Kim Jong-un and then U.S. President Donald Trump ended without a deal.

This latest information comes amidst increasing tensions, and we can only hope for positive developments in the denuclearisation talks to ease these ongoing concerns. As we look to the future, the need for diplomatic solutions and international cooperation has never been greater.