The solar photovoltaic market is undergoing substantial changes in 2024, with cutting-edge technologies and innovations reshaping the industry landscape. The latest edition of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) provides valuable insights into the key factors driving these advancements.
In 2023, the global solar photovoltaic market saw a record-breaking 502 GW in shipments, resulting in a cumulative installed capacity of over 1,610 TWp. The market also experienced a significant reduction in the average spot market price of crystalline silicon modules, decreasing by nearly 50 percent compared to the previous year.
One of the most significant technological trends is the dominance of silicon photovoltaics, which accounted for approximately 97 percent of the market share in 2023. Additionally, the report highlights the increasing popularity of monocrystalline Czochralski silicon (Cz-Si) wafers, which now completely dominate the market, surpassing mass-produced multicrystalline silicon wafers.
In 2024, it is expected that n-type wafers will surpass p-type materials, with a projected 69 percent market share by the end of the year. Additionally, the market is poised to undergo a shift towards new cell technologies, with n-type TOPCon expected to overtake p-type PERC as the market leader. This transition is anticipated to lead to further advancements in tunnel oxide passivated contacts (TOPCon), silicon heterojunction (SHJ), and back contact cells (e.g., IBC).
The continuous advancement of solar cell technology is also highlighted by the implementation of fine-line metallization technology by Qcells for its solar cell lines. Additionally, bifacial solar cells are projected to maintain a 90 percent market share in 2024, with bifacial modules holding a 63 percent market share, indicating the high integration level of bifacial cells in monofacial module configurations.
Concurrently, the industry is placing strong emphasis on reducing material consumption across different technology routes. This includes advancements in reducing polysilicon consumption through wafer thickness reduction, silver consumption reduction through fine line printing, and the use of copper-containing metallization. Ozone-based cleaning is also expected to dominate in 2024, with equipment throughput values expected to increase further in the coming years.
Furthermore, there is a noticeable trend towards larger wafer and module sizes, with formats such as M10R and G12R gaining prominence, while smaller wafer sizes are expected to lose market share and eventually disappear. For rooftop installations, modules with an area of 1.8 m² to 2 m² remain the most common, while larger modules are increasingly gaining traction in both rooftop and power plant applications.
The ITRPV, supported by contributions from leading international industry players, aims to provide comprehensive insights into expected technological trends in the crystalline silicon-based photovoltaic industry. Additionally, the VDMA Photovoltaics Equipment Sector Group is set to host the PV Manufacturing Stage, a three-day forum at the Smarter E Europe event, where global experts will present the latest developments in photovoltaic production technologies.
In conclusion, the solar photovoltaic market in 2024 is witnessing a significant shift towards innovative technologies and sustainable practices, setting the stage for a new era of advancements and growth in the industry.